Millions could die: ‘This is clearly not something you ever want to experience’

By Bob Unruh
© 2010 WorldNetDaily

More horrifying than the plague of Black Death across Europe. More costly in lives than World War II. Financially, it could make the Katrina repairs look like a pocketful of change. And it’s not a matter of if, but when.

That’s the alarming warning issued by John G. Kappenman, owner of Storm Analysis Consultants and an expert on the dangers of electromagnetic pulse damage to modern society, with a list of qualifications after his name as long as a phone book.

The issue of EMP dangers to the Earth – either from a CME, a coronal mass ejection, which is an eruption of power from the sun, or from a nuclear-triggered EMP wave intended to destroy a society – have been the subject of multiple reports in recent months.

WND reported just days ago that the U.S. House authorized plans to defend America’s power grid against such dangers, but the Senate left citizens to fend for themselves, eliminating the contingency plans.

Kappenman, interviewed recently on the radio program “OffTheGridNews,” explained that never before has civilization faced what could be coming, because historic storms hit before people were so dependant on electricity and all that it does, from turning on a cell phone to powering the pumps fueling the transportation system to keeping food from spoiling.

Do you want to keep up on the EMP threat? Subscribe to the publication that broke the story in 2004 – Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

The domino effect, he explained, is what could cause deaths in the millions. Millions? Really?

Yes, he said.

“The severity of the storm we’re talking about here [could produce] widespread massive damage to the power grid,” he said. “That could cause maybe a four to 10 year sort of damage to the power grid … and an inability to restore that power grid.

“This is clearly not something you ever want to experience firsthand, it could lead to millions of casualties,”‘ he said.

But would losing power cause that much trouble?

Not for an hour or two, but for several years, yes, he said.

“Within a matter of just a few hours, you’d worry about the loss of potable water for major metro areas. You’d lose the ability to pump and treat sewage. Within a matter of a day or so you’d be concerned about the loss of perishable foods. With a few days, you would have exhausted the food supplies available.

“Then within a matter of three days you have probably lost total ability to maintain any sort of telecommunication infrastructure,” he said.

“We could be looking at a scenario here that far exceeds the casualties of any war, any natural disaster that humanity has ever experienced. And it may not be limited to North America.”

When the U.S. Senate earlier rejected House plans to make preparations for such a disaster, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., blasted the decision.

“While one part of the federal government was warning us of possible solar electromagnetic-pulse damage to our electric grid, a key Senate commission approved a bill to ignore this threat,” he said.

“It’s particularly ironic since the Senate amended a bill, H.R. 5026, approved unanimously by the House that would specifically protect the grid against solar EMP and other physical threats,” he said.

WND has reported for years on the devastating danger from an EMP attack that could be launched by a second-rate missile system against America.

The concern is that any nuclear detonation that could be launched into the atmosphere anywhere from 25 to 250 miles above the United States could decimate the nation’s electric grid, essentially transporting it instantly back to an era of mechanical machines and agriculture.

One estimate just months ago suggested an effective EMP attack could leave nine out of 10 Americans dead.

Bartlett explained that the danger also comes from naturally occurring EMP signals from sources such as a solar storm.

Kappenman is one of the main investigators for the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP Commission). He also has testified before the U.S. House Science Committee on the importance of geomagnetic storm forecasting for the electric power industry.

He’s also analyzed the situation for FEMA, contributed to a 2008 U.S. National Academy of Sciences Report on “Severe Space Weather Events – Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events” and is a member of the Joint U.S. Dept of Energy/NERC Steering Committee for developing and planning a conference on High Impact/Low Frequency (HILF) Threats to the U.S. power grids.

Bill Heid, who runs Solutions from Science, which offers a number of remedies for the possibility of extended power outages and food shortages, said the fact that such a “surge” of power would accumulate in the power grid like a radio wave collects in an antenna means that the most critical components of the grid – the massive transformers that regulate power flow – probably would be hit hardest.

The transformers, sometimes weighing in at 200 tons, cannot be replaced at the drop of a hat, nor are there a multitude of backups available. That, he explained, is why Kappenman estimated recovery could take up to 10 years.

The units would have to be manufactured, delivered and installed. And how would one install a 200-ton transformer without local access to power equipment (run by diesel pumped by electric pumps) and other such conveniences in the modern world? Also, how would one ship such equipment without being able to pump fuel into a cargo ship?

Heid noted that an electric storm that was recorded in 1859 had little effect because of the agrarian nature of the nation, where people were only a matter of steps from milk, eggs, butter, meat and even grain.

Further, the social unrest from diminishing and unstable food and water supplies also could be catastrophic, he noted.

“The fallout from that would be in a category … we have difficulty thinking about,” he said.

Kappenman said in the interview the events recorded in 1859, and again in 1921, are not only probable to repeat, but inevitable.

“There is nothing that has changed in the physics of the sun … that will preclude a large storm from occurring again in the future. These are a certainty to occur in the future,” he said.

In March 1989, he noted, there was a storm that produced a blackout all across Quebec. It developed from the first indicator of trouble to complete blackout in 92 seconds and “we came very close in the U.S. to a blackout that could have extended from New England … all the way across to the Pacific Northwest.”

At that time, the storm was ranked as among the most powerful ever, with maximum levels of 500 nanoteslas per minute, a ranking of energy surge.

But Kappenman said he’s documented in history storms that reached 5,000, 10 times larger.

Failing to prepare, he said, is like Russian roulette.

“We may have pulled the trigger on an empty barrel this time but sooner or later that luck will not always hold out for us,” he said.

According to Bartlett, the National Academies of Sciences predicted in a 2008 report that a solar geomagnetic storm as severe as the Carrington event that occurred in 1859 could inflict $1 trillion to $2 trillion damage.

Bartlett said the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee decided to dump the House plan, H.R. 5026, which directed “the Secretary to establish a program to develop technical expertise in the protection of systems for the generation, transmission and distribution of electric energy against either geomagnetic storms or malicious acts using electronic communications or electromagnetic pulse.”

Instead, adopted was a Senate plan, S. 1462, which instead promotes “clean energy.”

WND reported previously when Bartlett warned such an attack virtually is inevitable.

At that time, he said, while cyber-attacks are a concern, a “really robust [nuclear] EMP lay-down means microelectronics across the country would be shut down [and] you have no power … there’s one event that we will not avoid, and that is a solar electromagnetic interference, solar storm. If we have a big one like the one that occurred back in 1859, that would shut down the whole grid for quite a long while. … It would cost about $100 million to protect much of the grid, but if the grid went down, it would cost us between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in damages, and the loss of life could be horrendous if in fact you were without electricity for months at a time.”

William R. Graham, chairman of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack and the former national science adviser to President Reagan, testified before Congress and issued an alarming report on “one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences.”

He identified vulnerabilities in the nation’s critical infrastructures that “are essential to both our civilian and military capabilities.”

Not taking the steps necessary to reduce the threat “can both invite and reward attack,” Graham told the members of Congress at the time.

EMP is a pulse of energy that can be produced from nonnuclear sources, such as electromagnetic bombs. Some experts claim an electromagnetic-pulse shock wave can be produced by a device small enough to fit in a briefcase. But the most threatening and terrifying type of EMP attack could come following a blast from a nuclear weapon 25 to 250 miles above the Earth’s surface. Like a swift stroke of lightning, EMP could immediately disrupt and damage all electronic systems and America’s electrical infrastructure.

A detonation over the middle of the continental U.S. “has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures that support the fabric of U.S. society and the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power,” said Graham.

“Several potential adversaries have the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear-weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse, and others appear to be pursuing efforts to obtain that capability,” said Graham.

“A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. For example, an adversary would not have to have long-range ballistic missiles to conduct an EMP attack against the United States. Such an attack could be launched from a freighter off the U.S. coast using a short- or medium-range missile to loft a nuclear warhead to high altitude. Terrorists sponsored by a rogue state could attempt to execute such an attack without revealing the identity of the perpetrators. Iran, the world’s leading sponsor of international terrorism, has practiced launching a mobile ballistic missile from a vessel in the Caspian Sea. Iran has also tested high-altitude explosions of the Shahab-III, a test mode consistent with EMP attack, and described the tests as successful. Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States. While the commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities, we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect the dots.”

Bill Bonner
Reckoning from Ouzilly, France…

The big news yesterday was that the Fed decided to do about what we expected – not much.

Bloomberg has the report:
Federal Reserve officials decided to reinvest principal payments on mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities, making their first attempt to bolster growth since March 2009 to keep the slowing US economy from relapsing into recession.

“The pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. “To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level.” The Fed retained a commitment to keep its benchmark interest rate close to zero for an “extended period.”

With growth weakening in the second quarter and company job gains in July falling short of estimates, today’s step signals that risks of a downturn have increased enough for the Fed to delay its exit from unprecedented stimulus. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last month that the Fed was “prepared to take further policy actions as needed.”
The Fed’s last move in favor of easier policy came in March 2009, when policy makers agreed to buy $300 billion of Treasuries and more than double planned mortgage-debt purchases to $1.45 trillion while starting a pledge to keep the benchmark rate close to zero for an “extended period.”

So, the Fed has made another mini-move. And the markets reacted appropriately, in a mini-way. Stocks went down a little – minus 54 on the Dow. Gold went down a bit too – off $4, to bring the price to $1,198.

Barron’s was not wrong. Just early. You’ll recall the newspaper says the Fed will “Print $2 trillion.” Yes, it probably will. But not now…not yet. Not as long as the Treasury can finance federal deficits by borrowing and the stock market hasn’t collapsed.

But the Fed is in a trap of its own making. It doesn’t really understand what is going on. It thinks there is a problem in the economy caused by consumers who are unwilling to spend. It believes it should use its policy tools to help pry the money out of their pockets. Trouble is, consumers don’t have any money in their pockets. And if they did have some, they wouldn’t want to spend it.

Of course, the Fed knows this much. But they think that if they can get people spending again, the economy will take off, employment will rise, incomes will go up and everything will be hunky dory again.

They don’t seem to wonder why – if things were so hunky dory in the bubble years – there was a crisis in the first place. Never once have we heard anyone of them – not Bernanke, Summers, or Geithner – explain that the private sector had run up too much debt (largely because of their own economic policies)…and that now it is paying the price.

Instead, they think the economy is sick and that they are all Dr. Schweitzers. The whole thing – meaning, the body of ideas, theories, prejudices, plans and programs of the financial authorities – is really asinine. Which is what is really interesting about this episode in history. So many very smart people have come to believe such absurd things. It’s a marvel. And marvelously entertaining to watch. What will they say and do next?

They don’t have much choice. Their silly ideas drive them into silly positions…from which there is no gracious exit. The economy is correcting from too much debt. They’re determined to stop the correction with the only thing they have to offer – more debt. And funny money, of course.

They’re not stupid, though. They also know that they can’t go too far or they will do even more damage than they’re doing now. So, they’ll save that disastrous step for later…when they’re really desperate. Then, we’ll see them “Print $2 trillion.” Or print $3 trillion. Or more.

In the meantime, it’s “muddle onwards” for the authorities! One misstep after another. Headlong into one trap…then onto the next!

And more thoughts…

More zombification…

As an economy matures, more and more people begin to shuffle and drool. They figure out how to use the political system to get something for nothing. The article below, from USA Today, tells the tale of government employees.

They went to Washington to do good…and they’ve done very well.
Federal workers earning double their private counterparts

At a time when workers’ pay and benefits have stagnated, federal employees’ average compensation has grown to more than double what private sector workers earn, a USA TODAY analysis finds.

Federal workers have been awarded bigger average pay and benefit increases than private employees for nine years in a row. The compensation gap between federal and private workers has doubled in the past decade.

Federal civil servants earned average pay and benefits of $123,049 in 2009 while private workers made $61,051 in total compensation, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data are the latest available.

The federal compensation advantage has grown from $30,415 in 2000 to $61,998 last year.

Public employee unions say the compensation gap reflects the increasingly high level of skill and education required for most federal jobs and the government contracting out lower-paid jobs to the private sector in recent years.

“The data are not useful for a direct public-private pay comparison,” says Colleen Kelley, president of the National Treasury Employees Union.

Chris Edwards, a budget analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute, thinks otherwise. “Can’t we now all agree that federal workers are overpaid and do something about it?” he asks.

Last week, President Obama ordered a freeze on bonuses for 2,900 political appointees. For the rest of the 2-million-person federal workforce, Obama asked for a 1.4% across-the-board pay hike in 2011, the smallest in more than a decade. Federal workers also would qualify for seniority pay hikes.

Congressional Republicans want to cancel the across-the-board increase in 2011, which would save $2.2 billion.

“Americans are fed up with public employee pay scales far exceeding that in the private sector,” says Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., the second- ranking Republican in the House.

What the data show:
• Benefits. Federal workers received average benefits worth $41,791 in 2009. Most of this was the government’s contribution to pensions. Employees contributed an additional $10,569.

• Pay. The average federal salary has grown 33% faster than inflation since 2000. USA TODAY reported in March that the federal government pays an average of 20% more than private firms for comparable occupations. The analysis did not consider differences in experience and education.

• Total compensation. Federal compensation has grown 36.9% since 2000 after adjusting for inflation, compared with 8.8% for private workers
Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

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Here at The Daily Reckoning, we value your questions and comments. If you would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to your managing editor at joel@dailyreckoning.com

[Editor's Note: Frequent Money Morning contributor Dr. Kent Moors is an advisor to six of the world's Top 10 oil companies and a consultant to some of the world's largest oil-producing nations. Since his "Energy Advantage" advisory service went live on July 6, the portfolio, cumulatively, is up 56.9%. For more information on the service, please click here. Below, see what worries Dr. Moors about BP's latest plans, and new CEO.]

By William Patalon III, Executive Editor, Money Morning

When readers ask me how Dr. Kent Moors could be up nearly 60% on a portfolio that he only launched July 6, I don’t give them an answer.

I tell them a story.

When the BP PLC (NYSE ADR: BP) CEO-replacement saga began to unfold earlier this week, and the Money Morning news team was working the story, I contacted Dr. Moors to ask him if he knew anything about anointed successor Robert Dudley.

With that response, Dr. Moors underscored, yet again, why he’s the ultimate energy-sector insider: He doesn’t just know about Dudley – he actually knows him.

In fact, Dr. Moors went on to give me an analysis of the new CEO’s managerial style, including Dudley’s strengths and weaknesses. Dr. Moors even went as far as highlighting the elements of Dudley’s managerial proclivities – and the elements of BP’s strategy – that pose the biggest risks to the Big Oil company’s turnaround.

It’s no surprise that Dr. Moors understands all this: He’s worked as an advisor to BP before.

I’ve been a journalist for nearly 30 years, and before I moved into editing, was considered one of the top business reporters in the country. So I know a true industry insider when I see one.

In the few months since he’s joined Money Morning’s roster of global experts, I’ve talked with Dr. Moors enough to know that – in the global energy sector – he’s the ultimate insider.

In fact, his latest insights on the BP situation – its new CEO, the status and likelihood of success of the so-called “relief wells,” and even BP as an investment – were so good, that we decided to post my most recent interview with him in Money Morning, so that you can read it in its entirety.

William Patalon (Q): What was your reaction to BP’s decision to oust CEO Tony Hayward and replace him with Robert Dudley, an American and an insider? A solid, strategic move? Window-dressing? A non-factor?

Dr. Kent Moors: A move was inevitable. Hayward had become a lightning rod. Short-term, replacement of the CEO allows for a “new renewal” approach. Largely a PR factor in that sense, but BP still makes its moves to embellish its image when in difficulty. Bob Dudley has senior level experience and has been awaiting something serious to do after being ousted as head of TNK-BP, BP’s major Russian joint venture. Dudley managed to alienate the Russian partners to the extent that BP was in danger of losing its position in Russia if Dudley was not removed. BP saw TNK-BP as a way into Russian E&P (exploration and production) work, but did not want the venture to operate outside of Russia (where it would be a competitor to BP itself). The Russian partners, however, did.

Dudley is an interim appointment to appease the U.S. government. From a tactical standpoint, BP needed to make a move by July 27 – the day it made its quarterly financial report.

Q: Do you know Dudley? If so, what’s your assessment of him as an executive? Is Dudley qualified? In your travels, have you crossed paths with him? Any thoughts, impressions, comments?

Dr. Moors: Yes, we met in Russia. He delegates excessively, [and is] not a particularly good administrator or executive on details. He is primarily a strategist. Has little field experience – he looks at matters with the view of a director, not a program manager. He sees the big picture, but is lost in the details. Problems, of course, arise from the details – not the overall strategic policy.

Q: What moves do you expect that he’ll make once on board? Are they the moves that you would have him make were he asking you for advice?

Dr. Moors: BP will emerge as a smaller company. It will pick and choose upstream projects, and will emphasize the downstream refinery to retail distribution [part of the business]. Dudley will spend much of his time serving as the source of sound bytes on the liability issues emerging from the spill. That would have been his job anyway, had he not been elevated to the CEO slot. The company must fundamentally revise its strategic-risk-management plan. This is the third time I am making this suggestion. Since I was advising BP the last two times I made it, I doubt they will listen this time, either.

Dudley does not seek outside advice. Owing to his limited project experience – I am talking here about having to get your hands dirty in the actual operational elements – he tends to defer excessively to inside advice. That’s a bad idea when you stop to consider that it was the “inside advice” that resulted in the current disaster.

Q: Does this “swap at the top” change your outlook on BP’s shares? Why or why not?

Dr. Moors: Not in itself. The situation has to stabilize and a new BP structure has to emerge before the value of the stock itself can be correctly estimated.

Q: Does the move have other, ancillary effects on energy-sector stocks? If so, which sub-sector, or which stocks, and why?

Dr. Moors: Only to the extent that senior management has to be more adept at explaining organizational elements and serving as a conduit between company and the outside. The days of the audience of a major energy CEO being limited to his board of directors are drawing to a close.

Q: Given Dudley’s reported better rapport with the U.S. government, what’s the prognosis for offshore drilling in the U.S. Any better? Or is this a non-factor?

Dr. Moors: Dudley will be treated easier in upcoming committee hearings because he is the guy who replaced Hayward. His appointment means nothing in terms of changing the offshore drilling dynamic. That is currently playing out on Capitol Hill with the discussion on several pieces of legislation. The single-biggest development from the industry that will help that along was the announcement of a multi-company emergency-reaction plan.

Q: Anything new on the spill itself? The relief wells? I recall that, in one of your last columns for us, you outlined the “nightmare scenarios” for the relief wells.

Dr. Moors: I am still not sold on doing both a static kill from the top and a direct kill from below. The idea is to move as much mud down to offset pressure differences. If there are significant pressure differentials between the annulus (the space between the production casing and the borehole) and inside the production casing (the pipes of the blown well), the combination could create a major collapse and pipe implosion. The static kill is moving in from 5,000 feet down (the blowout preventer above the wellhead on the seabed floor). The direct kill is moving in at a 47-degree angle to intersect with the production casing about 17,500 feet down (13,500 feet below the seabed).

Q: Anything else we should be watching for?

Dr. Moors: Increasing problems experienced with an aging pipeline, terminal and capped field structure. In the last week alone, we’ve seen a barge collision with a capped well in the Gulf, a dramatic pipeline explosion in Dalian (China) and a Michigan pipeline rupture that sent oil spilling into the Kalamazoo River. More incidents such as these are on the way. The required capital expenditure to maintain this infrastructure are increasing fast.

[Editor's Note: Dr. Kent Moors, a regular contributor to Money Morning, is the editor of "The Oil & Energy Investor," a newsletter for individual investors. In a career that spans 31 years, Dr. Moors has been consulting the energy industry's biggest players, including six of the world's Top 10 oil companies and the leading natural gas producers throughout Russia, the Caspian Basin, the Persian Gulf and North Africa. As the preceding interview so clearly illustrates, Dr. Moors' experiences - as well as the unrivaled industry access, contacts and insights he possesses - are the backbone of the Energy Advantage, an energy-sector advisory service whose portfolio is up a cumulative 56.9% since its July 6 debut. For more information on that service, please click here.]

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